Today’s Big Story

The New Swing States

Both campaigns are eyeing the states that are expected to decide the 2024 presidential election

It’s one of the most frustrating or exciting things about American politics, depending on whom you ask: The swing state (also known as battleground state, toss-up state or purple state) is a state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election.

You see, roughly 244 million Americans will be eligible to vote. But 99.5% of us won't exactly be a deciding factor in who wins: Some won't vote. Others will vote the same way they always have. Or maybe we live in states that are certain to be red or blue.

This year’s consequential presidential election will likely be decided by roughly 6% of voters in just six states, top strategists in both parties tell Axios. And both campaigns will spend billions to reach those all-important voters over the next six months.

Roll Call says both President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are trying to create new battleground states, a signal the general election outcome could rival Saturday’s photo finish in the Kentucky Derby. But such efforts likely will come up short, most experts say. Of course, you can’t blame them for wanting to expand the list of swing states as they scramble to stitch together the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win in November. Biden campaign aides have contended for weeks that the president could turn North Carolina and Florida blue, saying both are in play despite Trump’s polling leads there. And the Trump team says Minnesota and Virginia are in play.

And both campaigns are obsessed with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those were the battlegrounds disputed by Donald Trump after the 2020 election. And they're the ‘24 toss-ups, as rated by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. And the Washington Post found that the winner could secure victory by flipping just over 81,000 votes in four states (Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia). The question remains, who will have the edge come this fall?

Hamas Says It Agreed to Cease-Fire

Israel strikes Rafah and says deal ‘far from’ meeting its demands

Hamas said Monday it accepted an Egyptian-Qatari cease-fire proposal, but Israel said the deal did not meet its core demands and it was pushing ahead with an assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah. It leaves the negotiations in a precarious position, but still, Israel said it would continue negotiations.

“We are at a critical stage right now,” White House spokesperson John Kirby told ABC News. “I don't know that it gets any more sensitive than right now.” The high-stakes diplomatic moves and military brinkmanship left a glimmer of hope alive—but only barely—for an accord that could bring at least a pause in the seven-month-old war that has devastated the Gaza Strip. Hanging over the wrangling was the threat of an all-out Israeli assault on Rafah, a move the United States strongly opposes and that aid groups warn will be disastrous for some 1.4 million Palestinians taking refuge there.

Early this morning local time, the United Nations human rights chief called Israel’s warning for around 100,000 people to evacuate from Rafah inhumane and destined to cause even more suffering. “Forcibly relocating hundreds of thousands to areas where there is little shelter and virtually no access to humanitarian assistance will only expose them to more danger and misery.”

The Clock Is Ticking to Fix Social Security

It’s now expected to run short on funds in 2035, one year later than previously projected

It’s a classic good news/bad news situation: The go-broke dates for Medicare and Social Security have been pushed back as an improving economy has contributed to changed projected depletion dates, according to the annual Social Security and Medicare trustees report released on Monday. But the trustees predict the retirement program's trust fund will be exhausted by 2035.

That means Congress has less than a decade to fix the program, before it runs short of cash, threatening a sharp cut in benefits for nearly 60 million retirees and family members. And, according to NPR, the long-term demographic challenges haven't gone away. A growing number of baby boomers are collecting benefits, while there are fewer people in the workforce paying taxes for each retiree. Given today's low birthrates, that mismatch is not expected to change for decades, although a surge in immigration helps.

Lawmakers, with eyes on November’s elections, say they could face a rare window to enact sweeping fiscal reforms in 2025, as President Biden pitches new taxes on the wealthiest Americans for a slew of new social safety net programs and Republicans eye extending trillions of dollars in Trump-era tax cuts.

Boeing Starliner Launch Scrubbed

The historic first crewed ride into space was stopped at the last minute

Boeing’s first crewed test flight of its Starliner spacecraft on Monday was supposed to be a major milestone in the company’s effort to shuttle astronauts to the International Space Station. The reusable capsule was going to carry two astronauts to the station, where they'd spend a week before returning to Earth aboard the same vehicle. But …

The mission was scrubbed about two hours before the countdown clock hit zero because of an issue with a valve on the Atlas V rocket, a workhorse vehicle built in Alabama by United Launch Alliance that will fire the Starliner capsule into space. Launch officials told CNN they do not yet know when they’ll make a second attempt to get Starliner off the ground, though possible launch times include later tonight as well as the evenings of May 10 and 11.

You might recall, Boeing's Starliner program has been plagued with delays and design problems for several years. However, ahead of yesterday’s launch attempt, the aerospace giant and NASA both had expressed confidence that Starliner was ready for its first crewed voyage into orbit. Meanwhile, SpaceX, which was also awarded a contract through the same NASA initiative, has flown nine missions for NASA and another four private, crewed spaceflights.

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