The Daily Valet. - 4/29/22, Friday

✔️ The GDP Mirage

April 29, 2022

Friday, April 29th Edition

Cory Ohlendorf, Editor in Chief of Valet.

It’s Friday, and as you’ll see down below .. I’m ready for some “me time”.

Cory Ohlendorf , Editor ⋯ @coryohlendorf

Today’s edition is presented by

Today’s Big Story

The GDP Mirage

Even as gross domestic product contracted, demand from U.S. consumers and businesses picked up

You might’ve heard yesterday that the economy shrunk for the first time in two years. Gross domestic product fell in the first quarter of the year, as businesses slowed their inventory buildups and exports declined. But what went on with the economy is a different story.

The details of the disappointing drop were less alarming than the headlines might suggest. The report also showed that private demand actually strengthened, with spending by American consumers, businesses and other private purchasers growing at a 3.7% annual rate in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter’s 2.6%.

This means a recession is not likely in the coming months, economists told the Associated Press. Instead, they expect a rebound this quarter since the job market is strong and household balance sheets are in good shape. In other words: consumers gonna consume.

Another particularly positive sign is that while spending on goods was essentially flat, services spending rose sharply—Axios says this is a sign that the long-awaited post-pandemic pivot of the economy away from physical goods is underway.

Even better, business investment was up at a breakneck 9.2% rate. That means the corporate sector was still in expansion mode in the first quarter. So really, what gives?

The Wall Street Journal reports that one of the biggest reasons for the contraction is simply that the trade deficit expanded. Still, the negative number gives a distinct whiff of “stagflation”—stagnant growth paired with high inflation. And that could be a political liability for President Biden and Democrats going into this year’s midterm elections.

↦ Dig Deeper: Should unpaid labor like childcare be part of the GDP? One group is trying to make it happen.

Explosions Rock Kyiv Again

Biden seeks a dramatic increase in aid for Ukraine

Russia pounded targets from practically one end of Ukraine to the other Thursday, including Kyiv, bombarding the city while the head of the United Nations was visiting. It was the boldest attack on the capital since Moscow's forces retreated weeks ago.

Yesterday, President Biden asked Congress for an additional $33 billion in aid, anticipating the conflict will continue to stretch on for months. The funding request includes $20 billion in military and security assistance—including weapons and ammunition for Ukraine and its allies in the region and money to replenish U.S. weapons stockpiles.

“The cost of this fight is not cheap,” Biden said at the White House. “But caving to aggression is going to be more costly if we allow it to happen.” Biden also proposed liquidating the assets of Russian oligarchs and donating the proceeds to Ukraine, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States would “strongly support” Sweden and Finland if they chose to join NATO.

As Western assistance and ambitions grow, the Kremlin and its state media mouthpieces are increasingly framing the “special operation” in the Donbas as an existential battle against NATO—and signaling that they'd prefer to dramatically escalate, rather than lose it.

↦ Meanwhile: Russia has deployed trained dolphins to defend its Black Sea naval base, seriously.

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Does Anyone Still Watch Late-Night?

James Corden is stepping down from the ‘The Late Late Show’ ... for better or worse

James Corden said on Thursday that he would leave his 12:30 a.m. nightly show on CBS next year. He's been the host of “The Late Late Show” since 2015, but has been signaling for some time that he was considering leaving.

Whether you love Corden or hate him (it seems like there's no in-between with that guy), there's definitely winds of change in the cold night air. According to the New York Times, the TV industry is questioning the longtime viability of the late-night talk show genre. Over the last few years, ratings for the shows have nose-dived.

Of course, this makes sense. Viewing habits are completely different these days. Who's turning off their streaming, to catch network talk shows, live on air? So it makes you wonder ... will they replace Corden with someone new and interesting? Or simply let the show die?

And there are other possible exits on the horizon. Jimmy Kimmel has a contract that will end soon and has said publicly that he was unsure if he would renew. And Stephen Colbert—who's helmed the most-watched late-night show for five consecutive years—also has a contract that expires next year.

↦ FYI: Collider ranks the best and worst late-night TV hosts currently on air.

A Weekend Pairing

‘Ozark’ + a Miller High Life

When Ozark first premiered in the summer of 2017, it was called a Breaking Bad knockoff and was criticized for feeling too slow or generic. Four seasons and six years later, that's a description that would never be applied to one of Netflix's most thrilling crime dramas. It returns today for the second half of its final season.

The storytelling tradition of seeing otherwise normal, ordinary people get swept up in the chaos of crime is as old as time. Collider says we desire these stories as they “tap into our fascination with seeing people fall from grace, leaving us wondering where this life will lead them and whether there is any hope that they will come out clean on the other side.” The last time we saw the Byrde family they were oh-so-close to getting clean. Reviews for the final batch of episodes have been positive, without giving away too much of what's to come. But IndieWire says the season “comes to a fitting, pointed close” doing what the show does best. And if you need a refresher before watching, the AV Club compiled 11 burning questions to ponder before streaming the finale episodes.

↦ Your Pairing:Have you ever noticed how much beer they drink on this show? They don't seem loyal to one brand, but I've noticed Miller Lite on several occasions. I'd much rather drink High Life if I'm going to drink Miller. And I've always loved the little 7-ounce bottles ... the original micro-brews, if you will.

In Other News

↦ Moderna Seeks to Be 1st With COVID Shots for Littlest Kids

↦ Snap Unveils Pixy, a $230 Pocket-Size Flying Camera Drone

↦ All 4 Building Blocks of DNA Have Been Found in Meteorites

Other Things We’re Talking About Today

My Friday night routine

What readers bought in April

Seth Rogen’s Houseplant HQ

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The Top 5 Biomarkers for Longevity

InsideTracker has identified what to watch for in order maintain your health

We all want to be as healthy as possible, right? Well, to live your longest and healthiest life possible, your body needs to be periodically tested. Once you know what you're working with, you can make the necessary changes to recalibrate your body for optimal health.

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Your blood biomarkers change over time. And certain blood biomarkers are more closely associated with aging than others. InsideTracker—founded in 2009 by top scientists from acclaimed universities in the fields of aging, genetics and biology— has identified five key biomarkers related to healthy aging. And all of them are measured as part of their Ultimate Plan. Right now, you can get 20% off any purchase, sitewide, but you could always start with their free ebook.

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What We’re Eyeing

Is it time for a new watch? Perhaps. With a throwback style, Tissot's PRX is a handsome Swiss-made mechanical watch that looks far more expensive than it really is. The integrated bracelet and barrel design not only gives it vintage '70s swagger, it also means the timepiece sits remarkably flat on the wrist for a comfortable, sporty fit. The Hodinkee Shop just reintroduced a timely green colorway (they seem to be having a moment, right?), but it also comes in black, white and blue. So choose your fighter for summer.

↦ Get It: $650 by Tissot

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